In the past two weeks, the Christian faith burst into popular consciousness in a way it seldom does. And yet, remarkably, I hear people complaining. No kidding! On Facebook and the comments to this fine piece of writing, Christians are demonstrating a staggeringly short-sighted  understanding of the opportunity this exposure brings.

Two spotlight caliber events shined on our faith in the past two weeks and I’ll take them in turn:

First, Pope Benedict XVI resigned and his successor was chosen. Now, I understand that we Evangelicals have a peculiar glee in our rejection of papal authority. No harm there as far as I’m concerned. Jesus is head of the Church not some grandfatherly figure dressed like he just stepped out of 1430 in a funny hat. I get it.

But we must at least show some concern about who is chosen as Pope. Whether we like it or not, all Christian lineages go through the Roman Catholic Church. Do we agree on every doctrine and interpretation? No. But we do agree on much. And, if you haven’t noticed, it’s been a few centuries since Roman Catholics were the ones persecuting Evangelicals. The battle lines have shifted over the past 500 years. It’s time to start acting like it. Rome is our ally in the culture wars. Pope Francis I, from what I’ve read, has the potential to be a powerful one and his life shows it. Why should we reject him before he has a chance to prove himself as some are doing?

Second, the Bible has come to life on the small screen. Remarkably, I’ve seen Christian people complain about the History Channel series. Before we go any further, you need to know about my theory of genre.

The Nevins Theory of Genre is really nothing more than an arrogant attempt to slap my name on ideas other people dreamed up. (Hey, everyone wants to be remembered for something!) Here is is: If a movie (or book, or other piece of media) lives up to the rules of genre then it is good. For example, think of your favorite superhero movie. As long as Batman (or your own favorite tight-wearer) fights crime, uses cool gadgets, gets into a seemingly unsolvable pickle and still manages to save the day then I’m happy. The movie entertains and therefore serves its purpose.

The Bible series is similar. There is no way possible to include every little nuance in the 66 books of the Bible. Accordingly, Mark Burnett and Roma Downey included the broad strokes of the Bible. The editorial decisions they made serve the larger purpose of bringing the Bible to life. Here’s how Mr. Burnett and Ms. Downey put it in a recent Huffington Post article:

So, the proper way to evaluate The Bible series is to ask whether it serves its intended purpose. Is God’s love demonstrated throughout it? In my presently-indignant opinion, the answer is yes. Complaints, then, are needlessly damaging and useless.

Rather than being disappointed that the series didn’t include Jacob or Joseph, or a detail in a story you love, how about we be happy that the message of God’s love is generating so much interest around the world? How about we get off our lazy rear ends and seize with both hands the opportunity the Holy Spirit has afforded us these last two weeks to share the message of love which God so dramatically, amazingly, fantastically displayed in the cross of Christ?

Stop being so short-sighted and look at the potential harvest.

The Spirit is whetting the appetite of the world.

Are we ready to do our God-given part?

Merry Christmas! Two days ago I had the privilege of preaching in a small, rural Iowa church. This post is an adaptation of that sermon. Hope it brings you joy as you reflect on the implications of birth of a little boy in Bethlehem 2000 years ago.

I remember as a child the wonder of this time of year. School was winding down as the Christmas break approached. We made ornaments for our Christmas tree. We still have an ornament on our tree at home in Colorado that I made in second grade. Santa Claus used to call my house as Christmas approached to find out what we wanted for Christmas. It was a magical time.

Time seemed to march slowly. Christmastime seemed forever. As an adult I find time goes faster the older I get but back then it seemed to take awhile. I waited for weeks that seemed like years for Christmas. Slowly but surely presents would appear under the tree. There’s nothing like that, is there? A present under the tree with your name on it just cries out to be examined, rattled, shook, or steamed open. Do you remember that feeling as a kid waiting, anticipation building, until finally Christmas Day comes.

I always woke up early and went to check things out before anyone else if I could. My sister was an early riser so she beat me sometimes. One Christmas I found a train set under the tree all set up. I grabbed the remote, squeezed the trigger, and around the track the train went through the maze of packages and stockings under our family tree. I played with that thing forever. Or until time to go to Grandma and Grandpa’s house. Christmas was finally here! At long last I opened my presents and enjoyed them.

Now I want you to imagine something with me. We have four kids and for Christmas I plan to give them gifts. What would happen if, in all the excitement of Christmas with all of its anticipation and waiting, I were to take one of my kid’s presents and wrap it up nicely, with a bow, and put it under the tree? What if I told them this pretty package is for you but you cannot open it? They might be disappointed but still excited to see what it is. The next day they come and ask again, “Daddy, can I open it?” What if I said no? Then same the next day. And the day after that. And the day after that. On and on.

How long do you think it would take before they started to wonder what was wrong? How long do you think it would take before they would start to wonder if they had done something wrong? How long do you think it would take, being promised the package but denied its blessing, before they would wonder if I was a good enough dad to give them the present at all?

You see, when it comes to the promises of God, you and I are a lot like that. When we think God has tarried even a little bit in keeping His promise it doesn’t take very long before we start to wonder why. How we answer that question if vital. A.W. Tozer said “What you think about God is the most important thing about you.” What you think about God when His promises seem to go unfulfilled is especially important.

To illustrate this, I want you to read through Matthew 1:1-17. Yes, I know it’s full of names you can’t pronounce and rather repetitive. Read it. There’s a lot there that I promise you’ll find very helpful as we go along.

Did you read it? You did? Great! Here we go…

Right out of the gate Matthew gives us the main point. He says Jesus is (1) the Messiah, (2) the son of David, and (3) the son of Abraham.

When Matthew calls Jesus the Messiah he is saying one thing: Jesus is the fulfillment of the promises God made to Abraham and David.

The birth of Jesus proves God’s past, present, and future faithfulness. You can trust God to keep his promises because of a baby who was born of a virgin 2000 years ago in Bethlehem.

It’s really as simple as that. Jesus is the Messiah, the Anointed One sent by God to deliver His people. God, finally, has fulfilled the promises. If you were a first century Jew that’s exactly what Matthew’s first sentence says to you.

The genealogy of Jesus as it moves along shows just how unlikely his birth was. A quick glance through the lineage gives you an idea of how tenuous the situation was sometimes.

Let’s just take Abraham, for instance. Abraham, of course, is the Father of the nation of Israel. When God called him out of Ur Abraham had no idea where he was going or how God would keep his promise to give him a son. Can you imagine how ridiculous the idea of having children must have seemed to him when he was 75 years old? And yet…he believed God.

So everyday for twenty-five years Abraham woke up and wondered if today was the day God was going to give him a son. At their age it was extremely unlikely. If you’ve ever known anyone who tried to have children but could not you can get an idea of how frustrating and painful it must have been.

When God first called him in Genesis 12 Abraham was 75. He waited for God to reiterate the promise several times, sometimes decades apart and by the time Sarah finally gave birth to Isaac, Abraham was 100 years old. That’s 25 years of waiting, believing that God would keep His promise. Twenty-five long years.

And finally, finally Isaac is born! Abraham has descendants and God’s promise is fulfilled.

You ever wonder what Abraham learned from that experience? There’s a fascinating story in Genesis 22 that tells us. God asked Abraham to sacrifice Isaac. Now, how would you react if God suddenly asked you to sacrifice everything you waited 25 year to receive? Abraham didn’t miss a beat. “Abraham, sacrifice Isaac to me.” “Yes, Lord. Boy, get some wood.” He didn’t even blink. Why? It’s because Abraham learned something during all those years of when the likelihood of God keeping his promise to give him a son seemed slim.

Abraham knew that our circumstances do not limit God’s ability to work in history.

How do I know that’s what Abraham knew? Hebrews 11:19 says: “Abraham reasoned that God could even raise the dead, and so in a manner of speaking he did receive Isaac back from death.” Abraham believed that no matter the circumstance God would keep His promise to give him many descendants through Isaac. Even if Isaac died, Abraham believed God could do the impossible!

The question for you and I is this: What circumstances are you letting keep you from believing God is working in your life? Or we could ask it this way: What is God calling you to that you cannot do because…? What is it? A missions trip that you can’t find the funds for? A big dream that you don’t have the experience for? A marriage you’re not sure is worth fighting for? What is it?

If you’re letting circumstances get in the way your God is too small.

God is Able

God is not only determined to accomplish His purposes in history, He is able to accomplish His purposes in history. That’s why you see example after example of God’s people in jam after jam and God comes through in the most unlikely of ways. Isn’t that what all the great stories in the Bible are about?

Noah and his unlikely boat. Ruth and her unlikely kinsman redeemer. Esther and her unlikely favor in the king’s eyes. Nehemiah and his unlikely permission to build the wall. David and his unlikely win against Goliath. A virgin with child. Our circumstances do not limit God’s ability to work in history.

I love how Paul puts it in Romans 4:17 – “As it is written, ‘I have made you a father of many nations,’” speaking, of course of Abraham, “He is our father in the sight of God, in whom he believed – the God who gives life to the dead and calls into being things that were not.” What’s this tell you about God? Not only is God powerful enough and sovereign enough to accomplish anything He wants in history, He loves doing it! He loves making bad situations miraculously good.

Here’s the good news: Because a baby was born of a virgin 2000 years ago in Bethlehem you can be sure that your circumstances do not limit God’s ability to work in your life. Whatever God is calling you into, you can do with confidence He will make a way through even the unlikeliest of circumstances.

God’s Amazing Faithfulness

When you were reading the genealogy (you did read it, didn’t you?) did you catch some interesting names in there? Rahab. What is she doing here in the lineage of Jesus? Rahab was the prostitute who helped the spies at Jericho. Other interesting situations come up, too, like in verse 6 where it says “David was the father of Solomon, whose mother had been Uriah’s wife…” Adultery and murder in the line of Jesus. What about Manasseh in v. 10? Do you know how the 2 Kings 21:16 describes him? “Moreover, Manasseh also shed so much innocent blood that he filled Jerusalem from end to end—besides the sin that he had caused Judah to commit, so that they did evil in the eyes of the Lord.”

What do these have in common? They prove that our faithlessness does not limit God’s faithfulness.

Because a baby was born of a virgin in Bethlehem 2000 years ago you can be sure that our faithlessness does not limit God’s faithfulness. It says it right here. Look at the people God used to bring Jesus into this world!

This is incredibly good news!

Here’s what I know about you: if you, like me, are not careful you can easily get sucked into thinking that God’s faithfulness to you depends on your faithfulness to Him. It’s the strangest thing. We somehow get the idea that the grace to get in the door is free but the price to stay in the club is perfection. It’s as if God’s love was enough to send Jesus but not enough to forgive all our sin.

Don’t get me wrong. We should all strive for holiness but hear this: God will still be faithful to keep his promises to you even if you sin against Him. This is true because His love is based in His character not on your ability to earn it. If it were we’d be in trouble. Aren’t you glad God’s not fair? Aren’t you glad He is better than fair to us? If God can use Rahab, he can use you and me.

Isn’t this the message you’ve heard? Eph. 2:8-9 “For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith—and this is not from yourselves, it is the gift of God— not by works, so that no one can boast.” The baby that was born of a virgin in Bethlehem 2000 years ago grew up and died on a cross a sacrificial atonement for your sin and mine. “God made him who had no sin to be sin for us, so that in him we might become the righteousness of God” (2 Cor. 5:21).

That is truly great news. God loved us before we even knew it.

God is Always Working

Something really interesting happens in the lineage after the Exile. Before that scholars point to the historical books in the OT that Matthew was likely drawing from. But after the Exile the historical records dry up. For that matter, so did God’s revelation and use of prophets. Israel entered this period of about 400 years between the last prophet and John the Baptist with no words from God. Silence.

Each generation was born, grew up, married and had children, and finally went to the grave all the while passing on the stories of the promises of God. God who promised to bless all the nations through Abraham’s descendants. God who promised that David’s descendent would rule in Jerusalem forever. We skip from Malachi to Matthew with the flick of a page. They lived entire lives never knowing whether God would finally fulfill the great and precious promises He made.

And yet, Matthew records the lineage of Jesus right down to Joseph and Mary. While God was silent He was not inactive.

This leads us to our last principle today: Our perception does not limit God’s activity.

If you’re a brand new baby Christian you really need to hear this point because a time is coming when God will not seem as close as He is now. If you’re here and been a Christian for a while, maybe decades you know what this is like. St. John of the Cross called it the Dark Night of the Soul.

Times come when we wonder if our prayers are heard. Or tragedy hits and we begin to wonder where is God?

I do not know the answer to these questions but one thing I do know. My perception does not limit God’s activity. He works in mysterious ways and it remains to be seen what He will do in and through this dark time.

Here’s what I believe: Because a baby was born of a virgin 2000 years ago in Bethlehem I can trust God when my perception of His work in my life is nonexistent. He worked through time to bring about that baby’s remarkable birth.

A birth that angels glorified…shepherds marveled over…and wise men worshiped.

Why? Why were they all struck with wonder and awe?

Because the birth of that baby proved God’s past, present, and future faithfulness.

I love the way the Apostle Paul puts this very idea in 2 Corinthian 1:20:

“For no matter how many promises God has made, they are “Yes” in Christ. And so through him the “Amen” is spoken by us to the glory of God.”
Here’s what that means:

You see your circumstances and we hear no.

The budget says no.

The calendar says no.

Your education says no.

Your perceived ability says no.

Your experience says no.

You see your faithlessness and hear no.

All the ways you fail say no.

The sin you just can’t shake says no.

That addiction you can’t break say no.

That bitterness you’ve been harboring in your heart for decades says no.

You hear the deafening silence of God and you hear no.

You see tragedy and you hear no.

Here is the blessed, wonderful, Christmas message God has for us today: God, because of a baby born of a virgin 2000 years ago in Bethlehem named Jesus, says “Yes!” to you.

Will you say yes to Him?

This, clearly, is not the post I thought I’d be putting up today. I fully expected to have a new President-elect. It was not to be. This post is a bit disjointed but it contains my reactions sobered in the morning light.

It turns out the silent support was on Obama’s side. What were all those people voting for?

Obamacare stays. How is this possible? The law is still deeply unpopular and yet the people, when given the chance, did not choose those who would eliminate it. Should it have been a bigger campaign issue? Yes.

Status quo. It’s the one result I never expected and no one could afford.

Religion never came up. It will be interesting to see what Evangelicals did.

In fact, the analysis of the electorate will be fascinating.

I predicted the election would end up with one candidate over 300 electoral votes. I was just wrong about which candidate it would be.

Romney was classy in his concession speech. I regret that we’ve lost him in the public sphere. We could use some class.

I didn’t watch Obama’s speech. I stopped listening to him a long time ago. Not going to change now.

I actually thought Romney had a chance in PA. Not going to make that mistake again in 2016.

What was the result of the hurricane hiatus? No way to tell for sure but it sure seemed like Romney lost steam after that.

Benghazi will not go away. Obama’a send term will be plagued by the growing scandal of a dead American ambassador and three others. Investigations, Congressional committees, and the inevitable trials will still dominate headlines for much of the next two years (or so…these things take forever). We’ll  see executive privilege claims and partisan defensive tactics. Just bank on it.

Election themes I will not miss: oddly weighted polls, Libya as a campaign issue, the term “lady parts,” war on women, the 47%, “likability” as a measure of a man, impugning of character instead of policies and media advocacy for one candidate. We’re probably stuck with that last one.

Finally, one thing will always remain true: God is in control. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow, my hope is in Him not in the powers that be. That rubber hits the road now. The hard part is living it like you believe it. But so we shall endeavor to do.

Mitt Romney is in Colorado today and I am taking my family to see the man we hope will be elected President on Tuesday.

I’ll be taking photos and sharing observations all afternoon and evening.

Met Joyce who came from California to see this event.

Gary Johnson voters are well represented here.

Lines are getting long. 18,000 or so are expected.

Future conservative voters.

Read The Most Important Thing to Remember on Election Day

Sally is from WI. She thinks voters behind the Cheddar Curtain go red on Election Day.

The stage is set.

Sherry and Yvonne are two of the nice Romney volunteers we met.

I caught a tshirt and promptly turned it over to the Mrs.

The crowd is swelling. You can feel the energy rising.

Z enjoying the music.

Lead singer of Alabama Randy Owen warmed up the crowd.

Pictures turned out a little blurry after it got dark. That guy has great hair, though.

Two great quotes:

1. “This is the day we change our clocks. Tuesday we change our President.” Former Senator Bob Beauprez
2. “This is more than our moment. This is America’s moment.” Mitt Romney

The speech Romney gave was very similar to the one he gave yesterday in Wisconsin. Lots of applause lines and plenty of things to boo at as he recited Obama’s record. But it was overall the positive message that he has plenty of experience taking bad situations and turning them around.

One particularly touching moment came when Romney described a Boy Scout troop he helped. The troop had a flag flown over the Capitol in Washington D.C. and decided they wanted the flag to go into space. They managed to get NASA to agree to send it up in a Space Shuttle. Turns out the flag was on Challenger’s ill-fated final flight. Eventually the flag was among the debris hardly touched. Romney described the electricity he felt when he first held that flag again, swelling with pride and admiration for America. The Scout leader who Romney worked with happened to live in Monument, CO so Romney called him out to show off the very flag that had survived Challenger’s last moments.

As Romney speaks one gets a sense of his love for America and true desire to return to a governmental philosophy where the power flows from the people to the government instead of the reverse. I for one am hoping and praying he is successful.

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Also, you may like The Most Important Thing to Remember on Election Day

Americans are heading to the polls in six days. The long election process that began more than a year ago is finally hitting a crescendo. If you hate campaign ads and phone calls next Tuesday is better than Christmas.

Voting is an odd blend of emotions. When I pop into the voting booth to select the next President of the United States I am always excited but sobered by a sense of civic duty. Even in 2008 when I voted for a candidate less than my favorite I did so because it was so important to me to participate in the process. For, as George Jean Nathan once said “Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote.” Then again, can you still be a good citizen if you don’t vote?

Suffice it to say voting is a primary responsibility of any American citizen. And we like it. It gives us a voice, a chance to change the world; sometimes for the better and others less so. Either way we are empowered every four years. If one guy doesn’t work out you move on and elect someone else. That’s a perfectly reasonable way to look at it.

Just as with so many things in life there is also a theological reality behind the experiential fact. To illustrate this reality, I’d like to introduce you to a guy named Neb.

How Neb Came to Worship the God of Israel

The first thing you need to know about Neb (short for Nebuchadnezzar but who wants to type that name a dozen times?) is that he was a bad dude. He was the king of a very special kingdom called Babylon. During his lifetime, Babylon was at the height of its power. The place was magnificent. You’ve heard of the Hanging Gardens of the Babylon, one of the seven wonders of the ancient world? Neb built them.

Neb also had the most powerful army around. In 587 BC he marched on Jerusalem to put down a rebellion from King Zedekiah and leveled the place . He took anything of value back with him to Babylon including gold, items from the temple, and people some of whom you might recognize as Daniel, Shadrach, Meshach, and Abednego.

One other thing you should know. In the ancient world they believed that not only did the armies do battle but the gods of the armies did battle, too. When one army defeated the other, the gods of the losing army were thought to be weaker and subservient to the winning army’s gods. That’s why Neb doesn’t think twice about grabbing all the valuables from Israel’s temple and putting them to work in his own. Little did he know.

In light of all his accomplishments you can almost forgive Neb for being a bit full of himself. Almost.

One night, Neb had a dream. He saw a big, beautiful tree and just when he was thinking about how beautiful the tree was he saw an angel declare that the tree would be cut down and left in a field. (This is my summary. See the long version for more detail.) Now, Neb was a superstitious fellow and thought the dream might mean something so he called together all his wise men and asked them what the dream meant. They had no idea. Finally, it came down to Daniel who by this time was a trusted advisor on all matters spiritual and funky.

Daniel listened to the dream and decided he should pray about what it might mean. That night God rewarded his faithfulness so in the morning Daniel relayed the interpretation to Neb. Short version: Neb was the tree about to be cut down. Daniel pleaded with Neb to acknowledge God so he would not be punished and sent to pasture for seven years.

Neb was happy to know the explanation but did not think much of it. A year later he went up to his roof where the view was good. Looking around he was very proud of the fact that everything he saw belonged to him.

Before Neb knew what hit him, the punishment foretold by the dream came on him. He found himself in a field eating grass. Before long his hair grew out, long and feathered, and his nails grew long and he rolled in the grass. In other words, he looked like he belonged in a bad ’80′s metal band.

Neb was like this for seven years. That’s a long time to be out of your mind but then something amazing happened.

“At the end of that time,” he tells us, “I, Nebuchadnezzar, raised my eyes toward heaven and my sanity was restored.” Then, it’s important to notice to whom he attributes this reversal of fortune: “Then I praised the Most High,” that is, Israel’s God, “I honored and glorified him who lives forever.” The God he thought had been conquered in Jerusalem earned Neb’s submission.

God is in Control No Matter Who Wins the Election

“His [God's] dominion is an eternal dominion; his kingdom endures from generation to generation. All the peoples of the earth are regarded as nothing. He does as he pleases with the powers of heaven and with the peoples of the earth. No one can hold back his hand or say to him: ‘What have you done?’”

What Neb learned the hard way he records so we can learn a bit easier. Hopefully. God is the One in control of what happens in the world.

This was true when Neb walked the Babylonian gardens and it is true today. Even in America.

God is sovereign over the affairs of people. He is the One who raises nations up and dispatches them in time. Even in independence-loving America.

He is the One who puts leaders in place. Even while citizens of America head to the polls.

If your hope is riding on a win by either candidate, your hope is misplaced. If you want change, look to the One who can change people like Neb, people like you and me.

What’s the one thing you need to remember this election day? God is in control.

The third and final debate is here at long last. After tonight there is nothing but a 14 day mad dash about the country stumping for votes. The future of the country is down to this.

Tonight’s debate will focus on foreign policy. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will each try to make their case for leadership overseas. As they do I encourage you to think about one thing.

This one key thing might not be what you think. Most people watch debates with an ear towards whether or not they agree with the candidates. I agree that tonight the content of the candidates’ foreign policy visions will be very important. But the content will also serve as a barometer of something else below the surface.

This one thing is so important that most people look for it subconsciously. The facial expressions, gestures, choice of words, and sincerity of each candidate speaks to this one issue and you process impressions quickly as you watch the debate.

Here is the one key thing you should look for tonight: LEADERSHIP

This past weekend I went to a church men’s retreat where leadership was encouraged among men. The basic definition of leadership we received was this: leadership directs, protects, and provides.

Taking this very basic definition of leadership what should we look for from our Presidential candidates?

Direction

Which candidate’s ideas seem most likely to improve foreign relations?
Which candidate offers a compelling direction for America’s place in the world?

Protection

Which candidate will protect American interests overseas?
Which candidate will protect our diplomatic corp?

Provide

Which candidate will provide for ongoing equitable trade for American companies?
Which candidate will provide the conditions necessary for American ideals like freedom and self-governance to take root around the world?

If one candidate seems like a better leader after these final 90 minutes of debate that’s the man to vote for.

The Presidential debates are always a big deal in an election year. Sometimes it’s for the spectacle of seeing two would-be leaders of the free world jousting and jabbing one another. In some years it comes off as a bad reality show (see 2004). In others the debates prove more critical. For instance, the first televised debate between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon is credited with winning the election for Kennedy because of his more poised appearance. Everyone remembers moments like Ronald Reagan’s knockout “Are you better off today than you were four years ago” punch. Seeing the candidates in action can be very persuasive.

In 2012 no one knew what to expect until the candidates took the stage and Mitt Romney cleaned Barack Obama’s clock. If the polls are any indication – there are reasons to be both encouraged and skeptical that they are – Romney is gaining traction based on his strong showing in the first debate. It may prove either or decisive or another “bump in the road.” Time will tell.

As the candidates prepare for the second 2012 debate the President’s men are saying he will be more “aggressive.” Meanwhile, Romney’s people are expecting a good showing while others wonder if the town hall format poses a challenge for him.

Nevertheless, there are only four possible outcomes of the second debate:

(1) Obama brings it and Romney biffs it

After the universal panning of his first debate performance in four years, Obama is unlikely to let that happen again. Given the town hall format he will not make one of his major mistakes of the first debate: avoiding eye contact. Debate-in-the-round should make for a natural place to connect with voters. Liberated from the podium Obama will not be tempted to scribble notes while listening to his challenger.

Expectations for Romney are sky high after the first debate. It is unclear whether he can duplicate let alone match that performance. At best, he is the same leader by espousing conservative values, challenging the President when he misrepresents Romney’s plan, and show a human connection to voters. If he fails to do so or commits the dreaded gaffe, both are possible, then we may see another change in the polls.

(2) Obama biffs it and Romney brings it

Obama must strike the right tone and avoid being too aggressive, ala Joe Biden. If he comes raging out of the gate with wild gestures, facial expressions, and claims, Obama will look weak and impressions from the first debate will solidify. The key is to come across leaderly. In the town hall format leadership looks like genuine understanding and concern expressed as a serious answer to the question. Obama could biff this by attacking Romney to the detriment of his explanation of his policies. Given how heavily his campaign is invested on making Romney look like a political troll it is a serious possibility.

The same criteria for displaying leadership applies to Romney just as much as Obama. Look like a leader by offering substantive and serious answers to questions. People may not always agree but most will respect that you cared enough to think hard about the issues. If Romney demonstrates the same leadership as in he first debate, he wins.

(3) Obama and Romney both bring it

There is a distinct possibility that both men will bring their “A” game to this debate executing their game plans, pushing their ideas and answering questions according to their respective ideologies. In this best case for both scenario Obama stems the tide (ba dum) and Romney keeps on trucking and no opinions are changed.

(4) Obama and Romney both biff it

Expectations are a funny game. You never know what will happen which, as they say in baseball, is why they play the games. If both Obama and Romney biff it by committing gaffes or looking petty then he race may not change. Or, apathy could set in among the electorate. Neither candidate would be served well by this result. There’s no telling what a flop by both candidates would do to the election. Would it drag on Romney’s momentum and allow Obama back in the game? Would it reinforce the lead from behind view of Obama leading people to vote for Romney even if they are not all that impressed by him? Would anything change at all?

That’s the long way of saying the next debate could change everything or be meaningless. Or something in between.

There is another or question that interests me about this second debate: what will the audience be like? About 70 million people watched the first debate. How many people watch the second will tell you a lot about the state of the race. A large audience will suggest that people are still making up their minds. A smallish audience will suggest the opposite.

What do you expect to happen in Tuesday’s debate?

Well, it’s Debate Day and the web is rife with advice for the candidates. Some of it is good; some is bad; all will likely be ignored. So rather than contribute to the noise here are some questions I think will be on voters minds:

(1) Who looks and sounds more presidential?

It may sound like a peripheral issue but it matters more than you think. Romney has to meet this first hurdle to gain a hearing. Does he look dignified and speak with some authority (but not arrogance)? This will be his largest audience to date and he needs to seem plausibly like a President.

Obama has it somewhat easier on this question. He looks presidential because he is the President. But he often shuns tradition (i.e. campaigning on pop culture shows some find unworthy of the stature of the office). If he has a challengehere it will be to avoid looking smug or irritated when attacked. His reputation for being cool should prevent an issue here as long as he’s not cold.

(2) Who exhibits leadership?

Leadership is the defining undercurrent of this election. My sense is that people are willing to overlook many things (i.e. religion, gaffes, even experience) if they think the candidate is serious as a leader.

On this I think Romney has the edge. Obama’s leadership has been characterized as “leading from behind” but everyone knows that if you’re behind you are following someone. In 2008 he seemed like a leader by casting a compelling vision. Since his record was so uninteresting to the press and in some cases papered over, people believed his rhetoric. Now he has a record. His standard response is to blame Republicans but the argument merely highlights the fact that he was an ineffective leader. He’ll have to do better tonight.

Romney will talk about his experiences in government and private business being a leader. But he needs to move beyond his successes and show how they relate to the issues at hand. I, for one, like that Romney has contrasted himself with Obama by doing presidential things before Obama even thought of them like going to Louisiana after the hurricane and speaking out on the attacks overseas. It shows leadership.

(3) Who is bold enough to tell me the truth about the issues?

Listen, I know that people see the issues differently. They interpret facts differently and usually in favor of their worldview. But I also know that a great many people believe politicians cannot tell a truth. When someone actually levels with them, treats them like an adult, and lays out a serious plan to fix whatever the issue is, they respect that person. In such a close race respect just might tilt the vote. Whoever offers the best, most detailed plan will win. To be honest, this is an issue for both candidates.

Thank you to my Facebook friends who responded to my question about the debate tonight. You primed the pump!

What are you looking for tonight?