Conservative Cards

July 12, 2010

By Rev Nev

How the Mid-Term Elections Could be Like an Epic Baseball Game

Last week found my father and me at Coors Field making our annual pilgrimage to see the Cardinals play the Rockies. Over the years we have watched our share of wins and losses and took them all in stride but these last two games were something else. Both games ended with spectacular come from behind, walk-off wins by the Rockies. Ouch! What a way for the Birds-on-the-Bat to lose!

The first game was a particularly instructive metaphor for worst-case scenarios in the mid-term elections this fall. The Cardinals were up 9-2 going into the seventh inning. They were firing on all cylinders. Hits were plenty, pitching adequate, and the lead sizable. In the top of the seventh I noticed the Cards’ batters were less patient and swinging away. The Rockies made short work of them. In the bottom of the frame the Rockies picked up a run. No big deal. The score was still 9-3. The eighth inning and top of the ninth were uneventful and the odds of the Cardinals winning this game were soaring by the minute.

That's why they actually play the games: you never know what might happen. It could happen to the Republicans, too.

What happened next has never been done by any major league team. The Rockies, in the bottom of the ninth, roared back pushing across as many runs in one half-inning (9!) as the Cardinals managed in the entire game. It was easily the most dramatic win of the year anywhere in baseball. Rockies fans were elated, floating as they filed out of the stadium. We were stunned.

Here’s a gut-wrenching question: Can what happened to the Cardinals happen to the Republicans? Might the two teams I root for so passionately share similar defeats? While I am doing everything I can to support Republican candidates this fall, I cannot escape a lingering doubt that somehow the election may not turn out as expected. Who said not to underestimate the Republican’s ability to mess this up?

Let’s look at the similarities between the Cardinals and potential Republican pitfalls:

An Insurmountable lead – All signs point to a huge blowout for Republicans in November. A quick look at the Real Clear Politics average shows solid leads for Republicans in all the right categories and many analysts-even among Democrats-are predicting huge Republican gains. Democrats are even planning a sore loser, poke ‘em in the eye agenda to implement immediately after the election. It looks like Republicans can’t help but win. Of course, that’s what I thought about the Cardinals in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, too. There was no way to lose the game. Unless…
Inevitability leads to laziness – There is an unwritten rule in baseball that when the game is a blowout you don’t work the count. The Cardinals honored this rule in the late innings as they swung away without really trying to pad the lead. Nine runs are usually enough, especially in the latter innings. Election 2010 is rapidly approaching and there could be danger if the Republicans are merely willing to let the Democrats lose rather than put them away with better ideas. That’s why Fred Barnes suggests Republicans adopt Paul Ryan’s Roadmap for America’s Future; it gives Republicans something positive to push. If they do adopt the Roadmap then it should be adopted by everyone. A house divided cannot stand, especially if…
The best team isn’t on the field – Tony LaRussa is famous for his tinkering with the lineup. In a game with a considerable lead he is even more prone to making substitutions to get his bench some at-bats. That’s why Randy Winn was in the game. The player he replaced, Jon Jay, was doing a fine job on both sides of the ball but LaRussa wanted to get Winn in the game. This came back to haunt them as Winn made a couple of misplays in right field. LaRussa’s pitching decisions (e.g. leaving his lefty specialist in the game against righties) were questionable, too. For Republicans, this question will be unresolved until the votes are counted. Will Tea Party favorites like Rand Paul and Sharron Angle win? If so, the Tea Party will be hailed as a movement with momentum. If not, it will only be because…
They simply did not execute – In the big leagues, your job is to make plays: hit the ball, throw the ball, and catch the ball. The Cardinals simply did not execute their pitches and missed more than one catch they should have made. (Interesting fact: Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina had as many passed balls in this one game as he did in all of last season: 4.) The team was good enough to win and conditions favored them but when the cleats met the grass they did not play well enough to win. That’s why they actually play the games: you never know what might happen. It could happen to the Republicans, too. We are rapidly approaching the late innings of the campaign: August, September, and October. Even with large and unusual leads Republicans will have to be united and on message to turn out voters. Any hint of failure to execute will depress turnout and lead to poorer than expected results.

What Constitutes a “W” in November?

This is an increasingly important question as expectations mount. In baseball, getting a “W’ means scoring more runs than the other team over 27 outs. In normal elections, securing more votes than the other guy is sufficient but this election is not normal. We need to get more votes in every district and state that is even close right now. Expectations of a Republican blowout are so high that I am afraid they will commit one of the simple but fatal errors above. Republicans could win but not as huge as expected and this would be interpreted as a Democrat victory, albeit a moral one.

Winning in November means more than gaining control over the House which is increasingly likely barring some strange, game-changing event. A true triumph will also take over the Senate by striking out long-time Democrat All-stars like Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Russ Feingold (D-WI) in addition to the seven or so seats that now look winnable. Doing so will take discipline, great candidates, and near-perfect execution. Then the hard part: governing. Are the Republicans up for it? I hope so. I can’t take another brutal, come from behind loss.